Listening for Dings

A friend of mine who wrote a controversial book about dating taught me the concept of the ding. He said if the lady is not the person she's expressing to you, sooner or later she's going to say something that makes no sense. He calls this a ding. Never overlook a ding, because it gives you a glimpse into the active undercurrents.

In my previous posting, I mentioned that go!'s raising it's lowest price to $49 was a very significant development in the air war story. I continue to hold that opinion. My belief was that this fare increase showed that Mesa's CEO was under enough pressure to finally bow to the competition and raise fares as an act of damage control. This is certainly a possible explanation, but the more thought I give this matter, the more uneasy I feel with this explanation.

I regard Mesa's CEO Jonathan Ornstein as a person who views business as a chess game. His goal is to win, and he moves his pieces to exert pressure until he reaches his goals or is forced into defeat. He's a calculator much like Russsia's president Putin. What bothers me about the fare increase is that it takes most of the financial pressure off Aloha Airlines, yet it falls far short of relieving go! airlines of its losses. In other words, go! loses more than it gains with this move. I believe Ornstein is a better chess player than this, so I note ding number 1.

Do you remember go!'s pledge that its lowest fare will always be no higher than $39? It may be reasonable for go! to raise average prices, but by eliminating $39 fares on even the toughest flights to sell, it has reneged on its pledge to customers and in so doing loses credibility at a time it cannot afford to lose credibility. Ding number 2.

So, I believe there are undercurrents at work here, and I cannot tell you what they are. As more dings appear, I'll be listening though. Change is in the air.